Production limit scheme introduced spot strong, good or has been partially realized should not catch up
  

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Become useful aspects, last week thread production decreased obviously, which reduced part from electric furnace, but the main reason is not loss caused by, false blocked raw materials to reduce scrap the arrival of the goods during the logistics makes the production and the subsequent need to focus on sustainability, hot roll because of relatively high yield profit remains high, following tangshan to leak or cause inhibition to the plate supply; According to the plan released in Tangshan over the weekend, the range of the limit is between 10-45%, which is expected to affect the average daily pig iron output of about 35,000 tons. The overall strength is weaker than in previous years, but considering the current state of low profits, the follow-up execution resistance may be small. On the demand side, last Friday, the terminal replenishment superimposed midstream speculative demand was released, and the transaction volume of building materials reached 340,000 tons, a new high in the year. On Saturday, the transaction volume decreased to around 260,000 tons during the working day. The short-term demand or overdraft may have decreased recently, but the overall consumption level is expected to be good when the terminal consumption season enters in October. According to the data of Steel and silver, the inventory of building materials decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, the inventory of boards was classified to different degrees, and the total inventory increased by 3.71%. According to the post-holiday season, the inventory should start to decrease. On the whole, autumn and winter production limit is an expected event and the intensity is weaker than in previous years, and the impact on the disk surface still needs to be observed. When winter approaches, production needs to be controlled to relieve the inventory pressure. It is expected to maintain a range of oscillation due to the lack of unilateral drive, and the range refers to 3500-3700(Valley electricity - flat electricity static cost). As for iron ore, overseas shipments are good. The pressure to arrive at the port began to increase last week, and it is expected to be at a high level in the next two weeks. At the demand end, the rebound of molten iron production after the festival is the main factor for the strength of raw materials. The negative feedback under the rebound of steel price may be difficult to continue in the short term, but Tangshan autumn and winter production limit is expected to still suppress molten iron; After the festival, the steel mill inventory fell quickly to make up for the inventory, which is expected to be mainly purchased on demand in the future. The port inventory accumulated 1.54 million tons last week. Compared with last year, the inventory accumulation was not too large, but the pressure of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks is still large and is expected to rise to more than 125 million tons. On the whole, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively weak, so it is suggested to maintain the main air allocation. Contract 01 covers the short order in the range of 830-850, and contract 05 refers to 765-785. In terms of coke, the fourth round of coke spot rise and fall, coke profits continue to expand, coke capacity utilization rate and average daily output rose slightly last week, Over the weekend, Shanxi announced the plan to cut capacity and other regional policies, if the follow-up normal implementation of coke supply and demand gap may be widened, but the high industry profits pay attention to the actual implementation; Demand end, downstream steel output recovery negative feedback temporary interruption, it is difficult to trend recovery is still expected to fall, port transactions improved prices rose; At present, the disk rose to 2080-2100 near or not continue to repair the discount power, short term or shock repair waiting for good further cash. Futures: meet the high fill iron ore empty orders. Arbitrage strategy, do more screw/ore price ratio strategy bargain re-entry, coking plant profit position left. Options: Stay short.


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